Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

Volcanic Eruptions

Volcanic eruptions following M ≥ 9 megathrust earthquakes: Implications for the Sumatra-Andaman volcanoes

Two volcanic eruptions in the Sumatra-Andaman arc that followed the disastrous M 9.3 earthquake of 26 December 2004 raise the question of whether these eruptions were triggered by the earthquake. Here we present new evidence to suggest that earthquake-induced decompression of the volcano magma systems leads to such eruptions. Numerical modeling reveals that other megathrust earthquakes induced ...

Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

Volcanic eruptions are an important natural cause of climate change on many timescales. A new capability to predict the climatic response to a large tropical eruption for the succeeding 2 years will prove valuable to society. In addition, to detect and attribute anthropogenic influences on climate, including effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone-depleting chemicals, it is crucial to ...

Forecasting volcanic eruptions

Forecasting is a central goal of volcanology. Intensive monitoring of recent eruptions has generated integrated timeseries of data, which have resulted in several successful examples of warnings being issued on impending eruptions. Ability to forecast is being advanced by new technology, such as broad-band seismology, satellite observations of ground deformation and improved field spectrometers...

Volcanic hybrid earthquakes that are brittle-failure events

[1] Volcanoes generate a variety of pre-eruptive lowfrequency seismic signals. Hybrid earthquakes comprise a class of these signals having high-frequency onsets followed by low-frequency ringing. They are used empirically to predict eruptions, but their ambiguous physical origin limits their diagnostic use. The short-duration, near-field hybrid seismograms associated with the 2004 Mount St. Hel...